Energy Transition and Its Impact on Maritime Security in the Persian Gulf

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD Student of Political Science, Lamerd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lamerd, Iran.

2 Department of political science

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Lamerd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lamerd, Iran.

Abstract

As the global energy mix is shifting to low-carbon resources, the energy world is entering an era of disruption. The global energy transition continues, but the pace of change is uneven. The Persian Gulf has introduced a unique phase of energy transition through which, although the total energy demand from the region has remained almost constant over the past two decades, it has not relevant to the share of Persian Gulf resources in the consumption basket of the countries. The energy transition in the Persian Gulf is understood as the changing pattern of energy transit from the region. Therefore, this paper is to discover the implications of the global energy transition on the maritime security of the Persian Gulf. The main question of the article is: "how global energy transition change maritime security in the Persian Gulf?" The initial response is that "the global energy transition develops the pattern of maritime security only in case geo-economic cooperation between Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and China upgrades to the level of military and security cooperation." The findings, gained through an inferential methodology, substantiate the validity of the hypothesis and confirm that any change in geo-economics is likely to be accompanied by changing geopolitics, however, it may last decades under the absence of strategic and military developments.

Keywords


  • الف. منابع فارسی

    • آجیلی، هادی و رضایی، نیما (1398)، «رئالیسم تدافعی و تهاجمی (چارچوبی تئوریک برای تحلیل وقایع و رخدادهای حوزه خلیج فارس)»، فصلنامه امنیت ملی، 8(27)، 198-165.
    • امیری‏مقدم، رضا؛ امینی، سید جواد؛ نوروزی، محسن و فیاضی، داود (1398)، «سناریو‌های تهدیدات امنیتی عربستان علیه جمهوری اسلامی ایران در افق 1404»، فصلنامه امنیت ملی، 9(32)، 49-32.
    • حبیبی، محسن؛ بخشایشی اردستانی، احمد و طباطبایی‏پناه، سید علی (1398)، «اهرم انرژی روسیه در برابر اتحادیه اروپایی در سایه تحریم»، فصلنامه مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، 25(106)، صص 58-27.
    • دویچه‏وله فارسی (17 دی 1398)، «وزیر دفاع آمریکا خروج نیروهای ارتش این کشور از عراق را تکذیب کرد»، قابل دسترس در: https://p.dw.com/p/3Vo6T
    • زارعی، غفار (1398)، «انرژی‏‏های برگشت‏‏پذیر و همکاری منطقه‏‏ای در آسیای مرکزی»، فصلنامه مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، 25(106)، صص 90-59.
    • زیباکلام، صادق و عرب ‌عامری، جواد (1393)، «منابع غیرمتعارف انرژی و جایگاه خلیج فارس در سیاست امنیت انرژی ایالات متحده»، فصلنامه سیاست خارجی، 28(1)، صص 198-173.
    • عاشوری، غلامرضا و مرتضایی، شیدا (1397)، «بررسی و تحلیل ساختار امنیتی خلیج فارس و تنگه هرمز در راستای الگوی امنیتی بازدارندگی با تأکید بر نقش راهبردی منطقه‌ای و بین‏المللی»، فصلنامه نگرش‏های نو در جغرافیای انسانی، 10(2)، 214-191.
    • عزیزی، زهرا (1397)، «پویایی‏های نامتقارن تقاضای انرژی در ایران با توجه به دوران رونق و رکود اقتصادی»، پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 7(28)، صص 132-105.
    • گل‏افروز، محمد (1394)، «نقش ژئوپلیتیک انرژی در امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران»، سیاست جهانی، 4(3)، صص 224-199.
    • محمدی، حمیدرضا و میکامه، ایمان (1392)، «تأثیر نفت بر حضور نظامی آمریکا در خلیج فارس»، پژوهش‏های دانش زمین، 4(14)، صص 52-34.
    • نامداری، بهروز و برزگر، کیهان (1398)، «منابع غیرمتعارف نفت (شیل) و روندهای سازمان اوپک»، پژوهش‏های راهبردی سیاست، 8(28)، 324-293.
    • هرسیج، حسین و تویسرکانی، مجتبی (1386)، «الگوی امنیت مشاع: طرحی متفاوت برای یک رژیم امنیتی موفق در خلیج فارس»، فصلنامه سیاست دفاعی، 15(59)، صص 138-103.

    ب. منابع انگلیسی

    • Blumab, H. and Legeya, L. F. L. (2012), “The Challenging Economics of Energy Security: Ensuring Energy Benefits in Support to Sustainable Development”, Energy Economics, 34(6), 1982-1989, https://doi.org/1016/j.eneco.2012.08.013
    • BP (2020), “BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020”, 69th Edition, BP plc, Available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • CrisisGroup (2020), “Strait of Hormuz”, 30 April, Available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-us-trigger-list/flashpoints/hormuz, Accessed on: 1 May 2020.
    • Dourian, K. (2019), “Challenges to the Energy Transition in the Gulf Countries”, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), 2 October, Available at: https://agsiw.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Dourian_Petro-Diplomacy-2019-Scene-Setter_ONLINE.pdf, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • EENews (2019), “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019”, BloombergNEF, 15 May, Available at: https://www.eenews.net/assets/2019/05/15/document_ew_02.pdf, Accessed on: 11 January 2020.
    • EIA (2017), “World Oil Transit Chokepoints”, S. Energy Information Administration, Available at: https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/wotc.pdf, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • EIA (2019), “The Strait of Hormuz Is the World's Most Important Oil Transit Chokepoint”, S. Energy Information Administration, Available at: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39932, Accessed on: 22 January 2020.
    • EIA (2020(A)), “S. Net Imports from Persian Gulf Countries of Crude Oil”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Available at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUSPG2&f=M, Accessed on: 30 February 2020.
    • EIA (2020(B)), “S. Net Imports of Crude Oil”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Available at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=A, Accessed on: 30 February 2020.
    • Gielen, D., Boshell, F., Saygin, D., Bazilian, M. D., Wagner, N. and Gorini, R. (2019), “The Role of Renewable Energy in the Global Energy Transformation”, Energy Strategy Reviews, 24(3), 38–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.01.006
    • Griffiths, S. (2019), “Energy Diplomacy in a Time of Energy Transition”, Energy Strategy Reviews, 26(3), 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100386
    • Gross, S. and Ghafar, A. A. (2019), “The Shifting Energy Landscape and the Gulf Economies’ Diversification Challenge”, Foreign Policy at Brookings, December, Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/FP_20191210_gcc_energy_ghafar_gross.pdf, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • Hache, E. (2018), “Do Renewable Energies Improve Energy Security in the Long Run?”, International Economics, 156(17), 127-135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2018.01.005
    • IEA (2018), “The Future of Petrochemicals; Towards More Sustainable Plastics and Fertilisers”, International Energy Agency, Available at: https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2310, Accessed on: 22 January 2020.
    • IEA (2019), “Global EV Outlook 2019”, International Energy Agency, Available at: https://webstore.iea.org/global-ev-outlook-2019.pdf, Accessed on: 2 January 2020.
    • IEA (2020), “World Energy Outlook 2020”, International Energy Agency, Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020, Accessed on: 22 September 2019.
    • IGU (2019), “World LNG Report”, International Gas Union, Available at: https://www.igu.org/app/uploads-wp/2019/06/IGU-Annual-Report-2019_23.pdf, Accessed on: 15 January 2020.
    • IGU (2020), “World LNG Report”, International Gas Union, Available at: https://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/node-news_item- https://www.igu.org/app/uploads-wp/2020/08/GGR_2020.pdf, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • IRENA (2018), “Global Energy Transformation”, The International Renewable Energy Agency, Available at: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Apr/IRENA_Report_GET_2018.pdf, Accessed on: 19 January 2020.
    • IRENA (2020), “Renewable Capacity Statistics 2020”, The International Renewable Energy Agency, Available at: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Mar/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2020.pdf, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • Katzman, K., McInnis, K. L. and Thomas, C. (2020), “U.S.-Iran Conflict and Implications for S. Policy”, Congressional Research Service, No. R45795, January, Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R45795.pdf, Accessed on: 27 April 2020.
    • Lee, J. (2019), “Which Oil Buyers Have Most at Stake as Mideast Tensions Rise”, Bloomberg L.P., 27 June, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-26/which-oil-buyers-have-most-at-stake-as-mideast-tensions-rise, Accessed on: 2 January 2020.
    • Leung, G. C. K., Li, R. and Low, M. (2011), “Transitions in China’s Oil Economy, 1990-2010”, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 52(4), 483–500, https://doi.org/10.2747/1539-7216.52.4.483
    • Lewis, S. W. (2002), China’s Oil Diplomacy and Relations with the Middle East, The Petroleum Energy Center of Japan, Available at: http://large.stanford.edu/publications/power/references/baker/studies/pec911/docs/PEC911Update_ChinasOilDiplomacyRelationsMiddleEast.pdf, Accessed on: 14 January 2020.
    • Lilli, E. (2018), “Debating US Military Strategy in the Persian Gulf: What is the Way Forward?”, The Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 61(1), 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329201800102
    • McCrone, A., Moslener, U., d’Estais, F., Usher, E. and Grüning, C. (2017), “Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2017”, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.19153.84320
    • Menichetti, E., El Gharras, A., Duhamel, B. and Karbuz, S. (2018), “The Mena Region in the Global Energy Markets”, MENARA Working Papers, No. 21, October, Available at: https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/menara_wp_21.pdf, Accessed on: 23 January 2020.
    • Molavi, A. (2019), “U.S Middle East Policy Must Contend with the New Power on the Block”, The Caravan (Stanford University’s Hoover Institution), No. 1921, 4 April, Available at: https://www.hoover.org/research/us-middle-east-policy-must-contend-new-power-block, Accessed on: 22 January 2020.
    • Nace, T., Plante, L. and Browning, J. (2019), “The New Gas Boom; Tracking Global LNG Infrastructure”, Global Energy Monitor, June, Available at: https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/NewGasBoomEmbargo.pdf, Accessed on: 2 February 2020.
    • Overland, I. (2019), “The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy: Debunking Four Emerging Myths”, Energy Research and Social Science, 49(3), 36–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.10.018
    • Overland, I., Bazilian, M., Ilimbek Uulu, T., Vakulchuk, R. and Westphal, K. (2019), “The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical Gains and Losses After Energy Transition”, Energy Strategy Reviews, 26(6), 1-16, https://doi.org/1016/j.esr.2019.100406
    • Rider, D. (2020), “Indian Ocean Region”, Weekly Security & Risk Report, Series. 14, Issue. 218, 4 March, Available at: https://www.mast-security.com/wp-content/uploads/security-and-risk-report-04mar20.pdf, Accessed on: 21 April 2020.
    • Scholten, D. and Bosman, R. (2016), “The Geopolitics of Renewables; Exploring the Political Implications of Renewable Energy Systems”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 103(2), 273–283, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.10.014
    • Solomon, J. and Sexton, B. (2018), “Trump Slams Bush for ‘Worst Single Mistake’ in U.S. History”, The Hill, 20 September, Available at: https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/407398-trump-slams-bush-for-worst-single-mistake-in-us-history, Accessed on: 18 January 2020.
    • Stanley, A. J. (2019), “Oil Markets, Oil Attacks, and the Strategic Straits”, The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 19 July, Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/oil-markets-oil-attacks-and-strategic-straits, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • Statista (2017), “China's Crude Oil Imports by Source Country 2014”, 5 September, Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/221765/chenese-oil-imports-by-country, Accessed on: 3 February 2020.
    • Stevens, P. (2019), “The Geopolitical Implications of Future Oil Demand”, Chatham House, 14 August, Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2019-08-14-FutureOilDemand.pdf, Accessed on: 22 September 2020.
    • Vinayak, V., Joshi, K. B. and Sarma, P. M. (2019), “Diafuel™(Diatom Biofuel) vs Electric Vehicles, a Basic Comparison: A High Potential Renewable Energy Source to Make India Energy Independent”, In J. Seckbach and R. Gordon (Eds.), Diatoms: Fundamentals and Applications (pp. 537-582), Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
    • Workman, D. (2020), “Top 15 Crude Oil Suppliers to China”, World's Top Exports, 29 January, Available at: http://www.worldstopexports.com/top-15-crude-oil-suppliers-to-china, Accessed on: 3 February 2020.