نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری مدیریت راهبردی آیندهپژوهی دانشگاه و پژوهشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و تحقیقات راهبردی و عضو هیئتعلمی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The strategic futures studies in the homeland security must be able to manage of the rapid process and radical of environmental changes with features such as uncertainty, complexity, uncertainty and dynamics
In the study, qualitative and qualitative methods (mixed methods) are used to realize the objectives of the research. In the qualitative part, based on the exact study of all external and internal documents and systematic literature review of strategic futures studies,dimensions and components, and sub-components of homeland security strategic futures studies. Cronbach Alpha and composite reliability of the research are equivalent to 0/782 and 0/791 respectively.
The findings of the research show that the dimensions, components of strategic futures studies, homeland security in the viewpoints of the experts for the future of the homeland security of the Islamic Republic of Iran include as follow: Components of description, analyzing and explanation, including: universal trends, environment polarizing, benefits and power of universal actors, strategy and doctrine of actors and minatories, their power and objectives, political, economic, social, cultural trends, values, capacities, and national resources, belief and way of thinking peoples, way of thinking homeland security, principles and doctrine of homeland security, macro targets and politics of homeland security And Components of strategic decision-making, including: determining the territory, environment scaning, trend-researching, casual layeranalysis, analysis of key factors and drivers, identify weak signals of change, vision drawing, Key technologies, scenario-formulating, wildcards scenario, flexible and case strategy, backecasting and Strategic planning.
کلیدواژهها [English]
الف- منابع فارسی؛
ب- منابع لاتین
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